Wheat Futures Close Higher on Expectations of Reduced Planted Areas in Russia
Wheat prices rose during Tuesday’s trading session at the Chicago Board of Trade, supported by expectations of a decline in wheat-planted areas in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter.
According to estimates from SovEcon, Russia has completed winter crop planting for the 2026 harvest season. The area planted with winter wheat reached 16.1 million hectares by mid-December, slightly down from 16.2 million hectares a year earlier and well below 16.9 million hectares recorded in 2023.
SovEcon analysts noted that winter wheat acreage in Russia peaked at 17.8 million hectares in December 2021, before entering a downward trend due to declining grain production profitability and the introduction of export duties.
The consultancy also expects spring wheat planting to fall in 2026 to 10.7 million hectares, compared with 11.1 million hectares in 2025 and 12.3 million hectares in 2024, according to the report.
Analysts attribute the decline primarily to weaker profitability in grain production over recent years. SovEcon estimates that pre-tax profits for Russian grain producers totaled 69 billion rubles between January and September this year, down from 93 billion rubles in the same period last year and 181 billion rubles in 2021. Financial conditions for farmers began to deteriorate following the introduction of export duties in 2021.
Competitors Increase Wheat Planting
In contrast, Russia’s competitors in the global wheat market have expanded their planted areas. Data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy showed that winter wheat acreage in Ukraine reached 4.7 million hectares by mid-December, up from 4.4 million hectares a year earlier and marking the highest level in five years.
Meanwhile, France’s Ministry of Agriculture estimated winter wheat plantings at 4.8 million hectares, the highest level in three years, compared with 4.7 million hectares last year.
Over the longer term, SovEcon expects Russia’s total wheat-planted area to decline to 26.3 million hectares in 2026, down from 26.9 million hectares a year earlier. Average yields are projected to fall to 3.2 tons per hectare, compared with 3.3 tons per hectare, which would bring Russia’s wheat production to approximately 83.8 million tons in 2026, versus 88.8 million tons in the current year.
Futures Market Performance
- Corn: March corn futures edged up 0.1% to $4.47 per bushel.
- Soybeans: January soybean futures slipped 0.2% to $10.51 per bushel.
- Wheat: March wheat futures gained 0.4% to $5.17 per bushel.
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