Soybean futures prices decline in Chicago trading session

Soybean Futures Close Lower for Fourth Straight Session Amid Technical Pressure

December 18, 2025 · By sheploocloud@gmail.com · In Business & Tech

FOREX News Today
December 17, 2025

Soybean futures extended their losses on Wednesday, closing lower for the fourth consecutive session on the Chicago Board of Trade, as technical selling pressure continued to dominate market activity.

January and March soybean contracts had previously filled upside price gaps during Tuesday’s session before closing below those levels, a move that reinforced bearish momentum and triggered additional selling during Wednesday’s trade.

Technical Pattern Adds to Downside Pressure

Soybean futures chart shows continued selling pressure

Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing said the soybean market has also confirmed a head-and-shoulders top pattern, a bearish technical formation that continues to weigh on prices as the right shoulder completes.

According to Blohm, the technical structure suggests continued downside risk in the near term, though she cautioned that the market may be approaching levels where demand could begin to emerge.

How Far Could Soybeans Fall?

Despite the recent sell-off, Blohm does not believe soybean prices have unlimited downside from current levels, particularly after falling more than $1 per bushel from the highs recorded on November 18.

She noted that a weaker U.S. dollar, combined with sharply lower prices, could encourage renewed buying interest from end users — especially China.

“After this aggressive wave of selling and with the U.S. dollar pulling back, China is likely to step in to make some of the purchases it needs,” Blohm said. “The reality is China needs to buy roughly two months’ worth of supply from the U.S. to ensure year-round coverage. This is a signal to China, and it’s their opportunity.”

China Still Needs U.S. Soybeans

Soybean harvest amid shifting commodity market conditions

Blohm added that China will ultimately need to return to the U.S. soybean market, regardless of near-term price volatility.

“I believe they will complete the purchase of the 12 million metric tons they previously indicated they intended to buy,” she said. “The question is how aggressive they become beyond that. Do they reach 25 million metric tons as previously discussed, or stop at 12 million? I think they will fulfill the full 12 million, but it remains unclear whether they go beyond that.”

Biofuel Policy Weighs on Market

Additional pressure on soybeans came after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) confirmed it would delay issuing final Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and 2027 until the first quarter of 2026.

The announcement weighed not only on soybeans, but also on soybean oil and corn, as biofuel policy uncertainty continues to cloud demand expectations.

Strong Crush Demand Offers Support

Despite the policy-related headwinds, Blohm emphasized that soybean crush margins remain historically strong.

“Domestic crush demand remains at record levels and should be sufficient to support the soybean market through the first part of 2026,” she said.

Seasonal Trend Signals Potential Bottom

Blohm also pointed to soybeans’ seasonal tendency to strengthen toward year-end, suggesting the market may be nearing a price floor.

“Soybeans often show a seasonal upward bias late in the year,” she said. “Last year, the market bottomed on December 19 and rallied more than 60 cents into year-end. That means traders need to be prepared for multiple scenarios.”

South American Weather in Focus

Market participants are also closely monitoring weather conditions in South America, looking for any developments that could give China additional incentive to buy U.S. soybeans.

“For now, South American weather conditions remain favorable,” Blohm noted. “There are no major concerns at this point.”

Are Funds Done Liquidating?

Blohm added that managed money and hedge funds had built larger-than-expected long positions in soybeans following announcements of Chinese purchases earlier this year.

At the January contract high near $11.70 per bushel on November 18, funds held approximately 230,000 long futures and options contracts, close to the record level of 260,000.

Since then, those funds are believed to have taken significant profits, raising questions about whether liquidation has run its course.

“They’ve already taken substantial profits over the past few weeks as prices declined,” Blohm said. “Now we’ll see whether they hold remaining positions into year-end or if a bullish fundamental trigger — such as Chinese demand or South American weather issues — draws them back in.”

Other Grain Markets

Corn futures (March): rose 0.96% to $4.40 per bushel
Soybean futures (January): fell 0.4% to $10.58 per bushel
Wheat futures (March): declined 0.6% to $5.06 per bushel